$52M Volume • Most traded war market
US × Iran ceasefire by Dec 31, 2026?
Crowd says deal gets done this year. April 6 is the next critical date — Trump extended the energy strike pause to then.
IB Link: Ceasefire → oil drops → Bank of Canada cuts → GTA RE unlocks
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$88M Volume
Trump ends military ops by April 30?
Market expects operations wind down by spring. Trump currently pausing energy strikes until Apr 6 per Iran's request.
IB Link: Ops end → S&P 500 rallies → tech/crypto recover → investor confidence returns
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$529M Volume — Largest Polymarket market ever
Strait of Hormuz blocked by Apr 30?
1-in-4 chance Hormuz stays blocked past April 30. If YES: oil hits $130+, Goldman's worst case scenario activates.
IB Alert: Hormuz blocked → oil $130+ → Canadian inflation 4-5% → no rate cuts in 2026 at all
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Inflation Signal
US inflation stays above 3% all of 2026?
Near certain. Iran war driving energy costs which drive core PCE. Core PCE estimated at 3.27% in March already.
IB Link: High inflation → Fed holds → Bank of Canada holds → GTA buyers stay frozen through 2026
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Toronto Raptors • Must-Win Stretch
Raptors make the playoffs 2026?
Sitting 6th in East at 40-32 with 10 games left. Charlotte (39-34) and Miami (39-34) are chasing hard — only 1.5 games separate 6th from 9th.
Next 5 games:
Fri vs NOP (74.3% W) • Sun vs ORL • Tue @DET • Wed vs SAC • Fri @MEM
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Recent Raptors Results
Form Guide — Last 5 Games
Lvs LA Clippers94-119Mar 25
Wvs Utah Jazz143-127Mar 23
L@Phoenix Suns98-120Mar 22
L@Denver Nuggets115-121Mar 20
W@Chicago Bulls139-109Mar 18
2-3 in last 5 • Went 4-0 on west road trip before clippers loss
Tonight • Fri Mar 27
TOR vs NOP — Must Win
Raptors heavily favoured at home vs the 25-49 Pelicans. Charlotte and Miami both play tonight — a TOR win locks in a 2-game cushion in the playoff race with 9 to play.
8:30 PM EDT • Scotiabank Arena • Home
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Canada RE Unlock Trigger
Bank of Canada rate cut by June 2026?
Below 50% because Iran war keeps inflation elevated. A deal before April 6 flips this above 60% instantly.
IB Link: Rate cut → mortgage rates drop → pent-up demand releases → GTA prices rise fast
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Macro Risk Signal
US enters recession in 2026?
4-in-10 chance of US recession. Canada GDP already at 0.7% forecast — barely above recession. CMHC warns housing recession possible.
IB Alert: Recession → GTA prices fall further → but also → Fed forced to cut → eventual RE recovery
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Tariff Watch
US-Canada trade deal in 2026?
Low probability but massive impact if it happens. Trump is focused on Iran right now — Canada trade deal pushed to back burner. Ontario automotive sector worst hit.
IB Link: Trade deal → Ontario GDP surges → buyer confidence returns → Hamilton/SW Ontario leads recovery
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Inflation Exceeds 4%
US inflation above 4% in 2026?
Almost coin-flip. Driven by energy costs from Hormuz. If Hormuz stays closed past April 6, this flips above 60%.
IB Link: 4%+ inflation → gold surges toward JPM's $6,300 target → hard assets outperform equities
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Gold Price Target
Gold above $5,000 by end of 2026?
Crowd favours gold recovering above $5K. Currently at $4,450 — needs +12% from here. Goldman targets $5,200, JPMorgan $6,300. Consistent with a ceasefire + dollar weakening.
IB Link: Gold above $5K = TSX miners surge = strong case for hard asset allocation in portfolios
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Oil Watch
Brent crude above $100 in Q2 2026?
Currently at $105.85. Brent has been above $100 since March 8. Crowd says it stays above $100 through Q2 unless a ceasefire lands before April 6.
IB Alert: $100+ oil through Q2 = Canadian gas stays expensive = renovations more costly = reno quotes lock in now
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Extreme Scenario
US inflation above 5% in 2026?
1-in-4 tail risk. If Hormuz stays closed AND escalation continues into summer. Goldman worst-case oil hits $150 → stagflation scenario.
IB Link: 5%+ inflation = gold hits $6,000+ = Yardeni's $10K by 2030 thesis gains major credibility
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Gold ATH Retest
Gold sets new all-time high in 2026?
Slight majority thinks gold will beat $5,595 (Jan 29 ATH). Needs +26% from current $4,450. JPMorgan's $6,300 target implies a new ATH is not just possible — it's the base case.
IB Link: New gold ATH = hard asset supercycle confirmed = allocate now while gold is in a dollar-driven dip
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IB Note
Polymarket odds shown are Intel Bucket's best estimates based on live market data — not financial advice. These markets move in real time. Intel Bucket uses prediction market intelligence as one signal alongside geopolitical, economic, and real estate analysis. Trade at your own risk. Polymarket requires a crypto wallet to trade.
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